Probabilities Fund Management 13F annual report

Probabilities Fund Management is an investment fund managing more than $28.1 million ran by Christopher Mistal. There are currently 11 companies in Mr. Mistal’s portfolio. The largest investments include Invesco Qqq Tr Unit Ser 1 and Vanguard Index Fds Sp 500 Etf Shs, together worth $11.3 million.

$28.1 million Assets Under Management (AUM)

As of 4th February 2022, Probabilities Fund Management’s top holding is 14,240 shares of Invesco Qqq Tr Unit Ser 1 currently worth over $5.67 million and making up 20.2% of the portfolio value. In addition, the fund holds 12,800 shares of Vanguard Index Fds Sp 500 Etf Shs worth $5.59 million. The third-largest holding is Spdr Dow Jones Indl Avrg Etf Ut Ser 1 worth $5.44 million and the next is Proshares Tr Ultrpro Dow30 worth $2.69 million, with 31,740 shares owned.

Currently, Probabilities Fund Management's portfolio is worth at least $28.1 million. The total portfolio value may be much higher due to cash assets that are not publicly disclosed such as fixed income, real estate, or cash equivalents.

Careers at Probabilities Fund Management

The Probabilities Fund Management office and employees reside in White Plains, New York. According to the last 13-F report filed with the SEC, Christopher Mistal serves as the CCO at Probabilities Fund Management.

Recent trades



Christopher Mistal disclosed a decreased stake in Invesco Qqq Tr Unit Ser 1 by approximately 0.1%. This leaves the value of the investment at $5.67 million and 14,240 shares.

One of the smallest hedge funds

The two most similar investment funds to Probabilities Fund Management are Farmstead Capital Management and Castle Creek Capital Partners Iv, L.P.. They manage $28.2 million and $28 million respectively.


Christopher Mistal investment strategy

Probabilities Fund Management’s portfolio is diversified across 4 sectors. Currently, their heaviest sector is Technology — making up 5.9% of the total portfolio value. The fund focuses on investments in the United States as 36.4% of the portfolio companies are based in the United States.

The majority of the companies in the fund’s portfolio are large-cap stocks. Stocks with a size of more than $10 billion in market cap make up 36% of the total holdings value. On the other hand, small-cap stocks make up only approximately 0.1% of the portfolio. The average market cap of the portfolio companies is close to $1.02 trillion.

The complete list of Probabilities Fund Management trades based on 13F SEC filings

These positions were updated on February 11th based on the fund’s latest 13F filing. Quickly find out what the most recently closed or increased positions are.

Security Shares Owned Value Allocation
Invesco Qqq Tr Unit Ser 1
8.72%
14,240
$5,665,000 20.16%
Vanguard Index Fds Sp 500 Etf Shs
9.67%
12,800
$5,588,000 19.88%
Spdr Dow Jones Indl Avrg Etf Ut Ser 1
9.44%
14,970
$5,439,000 19.35%
Proshares Tr Ultrpro Dow30
14.54%
31,740
$2,686,000 9.56%
Direxion Shs Etf Tr Drx Sp500bull
23.10%
18,610
$2,669,000 9.50%
Proshares Tr Ultrapro Qqq
25.87%
15,790
$2,626,000 9.34%
Microsoft Corporation
No change
3,720
$1,251,000 4.45%
Innovative Industrial Properte
19.23%
4,200
$1,104,000 3.93%
Applied Materials Inc.
No change
2,670
$420,000 1.49%
Constellation Brands Inc
No change
1,624
$408,000 1.45%
Apple Inc
20.45%
1,400
$249,000 0.89%
No transactions found
Showing first 500 out of 11 holdings